Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.180081 0.202426 0.226578 0.254643 0.286384 0.321198 0.362318
2025-11-16 0.138276 0.166272 0.198722 0.239184 0.288392 0.346430 0.420273
2025-11-23 0.109160 0.139367 0.176626 0.226123 0.290402 0.371389 0.481700
2025-11-30 0.092229 0.124461 0.166581 0.225945 0.307936 0.417888 0.577686
2025-12-07 0.075253 0.106791 0.150228 0.214854 0.309323 0.443536 0.650745
2025-12-14 0.063429 0.094315 0.138987 0.208908 0.316719 0.478481 0.743006
2025-12-21 0.054135 0.084055 0.129339 0.203652 0.324117 0.514404 0.843010
2025-12-28 0.048542 0.078530 0.125920 0.207288 0.345682 0.575410 0.993668
2026-01-04 0.042657 0.071664 0.119363 0.204763 0.356645 0.620711 1.125944
2026-01-11 0.038298 0.066681 0.115153 0.205469 0.373111 0.677839 1.289506
2026-01-18 0.034987 0.063025 0.112661 0.208748 0.394578 0.747186 1.488629
2026-01-25 0.030479 0.056603 0.104373 0.200089 0.392210 0.771251 1.602813
2026-02-01 0.026282 0.050308 0.095676 0.189758 0.385754 0.787887 1.708679
2026-02-08 0.023368 0.046084 0.090359 0.185353 0.390699 0.828794 1.875857
2026-02-15 0.020783 0.042164 0.085119 0.180330 0.393583 0.865990 2.042885
2026-02-22 0.019350 0.040400 0.084007 0.183922 0.415965 0.950197 2.339144
2026-03-01 0.017218 0.036886 0.078766 0.177629 0.414863 0.980451 2.509132
2026-03-08 0.015621 0.034318 0.075224 0.174667 0.421133 1.029432 2.738355
2026-03-15 0.014210 0.031983 0.071889 0.171686 0.426874 1.078178 2.978011
2026-03-22 0.013439 0.031004 0.071500 0.175757 0.451039 1.178343 3.384029
2026-03-29 0.012396 0.029253 0.069077 0.174384 0.460820 1.242266 3.699642
2026-04-05 0.011606 0.028010 0.067713 0.175535 0.477629 1.328682 4.104188
2026-04-12 0.010998 0.027137 0.067150 0.178727 0.500705 1.437341 4.605564